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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/09 11:37
Traders Continue to Yearn for More Fundamental Support
Still no cash cattle trade has developed and currently no bids are on the
table.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is off to a mixed start as traders want to boldly push
the contracts higher but need to see more fundamental support before doing so.
Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May corn is down 4 cents per bushel
and May soybean meal is up $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 262.77
points and NASDAQ is up 162.31 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 17,400 mt for 2026
were up 47% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average. The
three largest buyers were South Korea (6,100 mt), Japan (6,100 mt) and Mexico
(1,100 mt). Pork net sales of 31,300 mt for 2026 were down 41% from the
previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers
were Mexico (14,700 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and South Korea (1,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the
market desires to trade higher but needs to see some immediate fundamental
support in the marketplace before the nearby contract will be able to do so
confidently. April live cattle are down $0.17 at $248.82, June live cattle are
down $0.47 at $245.45 and August live cattle are down $0.25 at $242.17. And at
this point in time, still no trade has developed in the cash market, but packer
interest should begin to improve at any moment. And although packers were able
to get some cattle committed to them last week, they'll still need to be at
least moderately aggressive in this week's market to avoid being short bought
in the weeks ahead.
Thursday's WASDE report showed a mixed outlook for the cattle and beef
markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 20 million pounds as
harvest speeds are lighter than anticipated. Following last month's increase in
the quarterly steer price projections, none of the quarters changed this month
as prices are expected to remain steady with last month. Steers in the second
quarter of 2026 are expected to average $241, steers in the third quarter are
expected to average $242 and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to
average $245. Beef imports grew by 115 million pounds, but beef exports fell by
30 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.71 ($382.37) and select up $0.60
($382.87) with a movement of 85 loads (56.16 loads of choice, 4.40 loads of
select, 6.30 loads of trim and 18.19 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Meanwhile the feeder cattle complex is trading mildly higher into Thursday's
noon hour as the market yearns to keep the bullish feeling alive. And luckily,
although the market has yet to see what's going to develop in this week's fed
cash cattle market, feeder cattle demand has been excellent in the countryside
-- which is helping drive the contracts higher Thursday morning. April feeders
are up $0.52 at $371.20, May feeders are up $1.00 at $369.00 and August feeders
are up $0.67 at $368.62.
LEAN HOGS:
Although midday pork cutout values are higher, the lean hog complex
continues to trade lower into Thursday's noon hour. Traders simply desire to
see steady and stable support and will need to see that develop before they'll
likely lend the contracts any more support. April lean hogs are up $0.25 at
$90.45, June lean hogs are down $0.32 at $104.32 and July lean hogs are down
$0.50 at $107.20. The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source.
Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $89.90, ranging from
$86.00 to $91.00 on 282 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.29. Pork
cutouts total 167.09 loads with 128.40 loads of pork cuts and 38.68 loads of
trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.13, $98.04.
Thursday's WASDE report showed a mixed outlook for the hog and pork markets
of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 300 million pounds as
slaughters have been lighter than originally anticipated and the latest
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that farrowing intentions are lighter for
the rest of the year. The quarterly price projections for hogs, unfortunately,
saw a decrease in the second and third quarters of the year. Hogs in the second
quarter are now expected to average $72 (down $2.00 from last month), hogs in
the third quarter are expected to average $75 (down $2.00 from last month) and
hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $65 (unchanged from last
month). Pork imports for 2026 increased by 5 million pounds, and pork exports
grew by 15 million pounds.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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