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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/22 11:10

   Wheat Mixed at Midday; Corn, Soybeans Lower

   Corn and soybeans score fresh lows, with wheat mixed.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 110 points higher. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 40 points higher. 
Energies are firmer with crude up .95. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are lower with gold down 6.80. 


   Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower with trade score fresh lows with fund 
selling building over the course of the session. The short-fund position is 
pushing towards 340,000 short or more with the fresh action this morning. The 
forecast should allow for better progress in much of the Belt this week with 
the north remaining slowest, and a potentially wetter start to May. Ethanol 
blender margins will see another boost with the surge in the energy complex to 
start the week with ethanol futures remain flat. South American harvest should 
continue to move along toward completion. The weekly crop progress report 
pegged planting at 6% vs. 12% on average. On the May nearby chart support is 
the fresh low at $3.50 1/4, with the 10-day at $3.59 nearby resistance, and 
then the 20-day at $3.62. 


   Soybean trade is 12 to 14 cents lower with bigger selling building over the 
course of the day session with the fall lows coming out. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 
lower, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. Crush margins have faded but remain 
solidly positive with meal still holding the $300 level at midday/ South 
American currencies remain cheap as soybean harvest winds down with the real 
edging slightly higher but still at the lower end of the range. The daily 
export wire has been quiet in recent days. The first crop progress report 
scored 1% planted vs. 2% on average. On the May chart, support is the fresh low 
at $8.64, with resistance clustered in the $8.89 to $8.91 range.


   Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 3 cents higher with light short covering at 
midday after initial selling pressure again overnight and the weak row cop 
trade. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched closely for further rains, 
with a mixed start to the year overall and no major concerns currently and 
better rains for France and Romania on tap. The U.S. high Plains look wet for 
Oklahoma and Texas, with Kansas seeing a generally drier tint, and the north 
more open for progress in the next few days. The weekly crop conditions were 2 
percentage points better at 62% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor and 
heading at 9% vs. 18% on average, while spring wheat was 5% planted vs. 22% on 
average. On the May Kansas City chart, support the fresh lows at $4.08, with 
the lower Bollinger Band at $4.11, and resistance the 10-day at $4.23. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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